Statistics Updated...

[SHANEA]

FROM:  http://www.nps.gov/bibe/parknews/upload/BIBE-facts-2007.pdf & http://www.nps.gov/bibe/parkmgmt/visit_stats.htm & http://www.nps.gov/bibe/parknews/upload/bibe_visit-stats.pdf

[SHANEA]

[Roy]

I'm willing to bet that first graph tracks oil prices almost 100%.  I know that's what happened in 1974 (the oil embargo).

[BigBendHiker]

Good job on the data!  Interesting graphs.

Agree - Jun and Aug 2005 are outliers.  We need to check the data for those months.  Those months occur when school first gets out and right before school starts.  May be some affect there.  2005 was an odd year from a tropical weather standpoint.  Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the Gulf Coast with significant impact, plus we had something like 28 tropical systems overall (The National Hurricane Center started using the Greek alphabet to name the last few for that year).

Good hypothesis; re:  energy and gasoline prices driving the variation in visits.  If we could overlay those trends on the graphs, it may show correlation between energy and visits.  There may not be an immediate impact on energy prices, but instead there may be some lag built in as the effect of the higher energy prices starts accumulating in our pocketbooks.

BBH

[BigBendHiker]

I'm willing to bet that first graph tracks oil prices almost 100%.  I know that's what happened in 1974 (the oil embargo).

I think your hypothesis is right on.  Adding the price/bbl of oil to that first graph would nail it for us.


BBH

[Roy]

Well, here's a graph (I hope) of oil prices 1970-2000;  don't have the computer skills to produce an overlay.  


http://strata.geol.sc.edu/petroleum/Chronology%20of%20World%20Oil%20Market%20Events%201970%20-%202000.htm
Image added by Moderator

[BigBendHiker]

Well, here's a graph (I hope) of oil prices 1970-2000;  don't have the computer skills to produce an overlay.  

http://strata.geol.sc.edu/petroleum/Chronology%20of%20World%20Oil%20Market%20Events%201970%20-%202000.htm

Cool and thanks!   Shane has the original graphs...he may be able to do the overlay.  Just a quick examination:
1.  BIBE visitors dropped from 1976 to 1981, while at the same time, price of oil went from ~ $15 per bbl to almost $40 per bbl.
2.  Then, BIBE visitors steadily increased from 1981 while the price of oil began it's slide from it's peak to ~ $10 per bbl.

I think this nails it.


BBH

[TexasGirl]

Thank you, gentlemen.  All of this confirms my appreciation for JULY as the time to go.

[BigBendHiker]

Thank you, gentlemen.  All of this confirms my appreciation for JULY as the time to go.

Agree with that.   Our best trips have been in July-August.  The park is clear of people, the weather really is good. Sure..it gets hot in the desert areas, but we head to those areas early in the morning.  The basin is quite nice.  It is good.


BBH

[mescalero]

I agree too, after living/working in the basin through June-Sept I'd say that nights and morings can even be quite cold. In the lowlands Terlinga, Boquillas, Lajitas, ect... it can get real warm in theday, but if we drink lots of fluids, stay in the shade, and take a mid day siesta 12pm t0 4pm it makes a big diference.  Plus, the summer time thunderheads roll in in the summer and mesmerize me. Reminds me of the smell of creosote just before the thunder storms drench the desert.  You guys are totally right, there are very few people on the trails that time of year. I'd say that roughly 60% of the time in the summer you'd have almost any place (i.e. boquillas canyon) all to yourself, except maybe some Boquillas locals, haha.

[okiehiker]

There are several major factors affecting park visitation over the years.

Oil (vis a vis gasoline) price is one of the four primary factors.  In short term variations it is one of the three largest factors.  The greatest single factor in long-term trends is increasing population.  Related to that is increasing wealth and liesure time so the trend of increased use through the years exceeds strict population growth rates.

Oil supply is more important in the short term variations than is price.  The general upward trend following World War II dipped when supplies were restricted for use in the Korean War.  The Arab oil embargo created the huge drop in visitation 1973-74,  Reduced overseas travel, and pent up demand following the 1974 drop resulted in a big increase in domestic tourism.

Price then drove automobile travel down for five years.  

Recent trends are quite complicated.  Gasoline price certainly has has a dampening effect.  However, post 9/11 border issues are probably equally significant.  

The wild card in all of this is promotion.  

People don't go to Las Vegas because it is a nice place.  They go because it is advertised more than any place else in the world.  The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Bureau spends more on advertising than the top ten STATES in the US combined.  Reno Nevada is second, and San Diego third.  

Visitation to Big Bend jumped 50% when the amazing 1964 National Geographic cover story on BIBE appeared.  Nat. Geo. has lost its power in American culture, but the principle remains the same.  

With proper promotion (Love Mr. Smith or hate him... he is right) BIBE IS Palm Springs.  

Is this is good thing or not??  Only time will tell.

[SHANEA]

Well, here's a graph (I hope) of oil prices 1970-2000;  don't have the computer skills to produce an overlay.  

http://strata.geol.sc.edu/petroleum/Chronology%20of%20World%20Oil%20Market%20Events%201970%20-%202000.htm

Cool and thanks!   Shane has the original graphs...he may be able to do the overlay.  Just a quick examination:BBH

It's a project on the back burner to do an overlay.  Maybe for my PhD thesis one day or something like that...  I've got all the data in Excel format is someone wants to tackle it.  Probably have to normalize the data, etc.  If you want the Excel sheet that I used to create the graphs, email me and I'll be more than happy to send it to you - pro bono.

[BigBendHiker]

Hi Shanea!
Just sent you an email...go ahead and attach and send me the data...will play around with it...


Thanks,
BBH

[SHANEA]

http://www.nps.gov/bibe/parkmgmt/visit_stats.htm



Looks like an outlier to me.  Have to figure out what Chebyshev has to say about this...

Were there really almost 81,000 visits in March of this year?

[RichardM]

http://www.nps.gov/bibe/parkmgmt/visit_stats.htm
Looks like an outlier to me.  Have to figure out what Chebyshev has to say about this...

Were there really almost 81,000 visits in March of this year?

My guess is someone hit the '8' key instead of the '5' while using the number keypad to enter the data.