Hello Dolly

[badknees]

Maybe some rain for the Bend?

[mule ears]

Maybe some rain for the Bend?

That's what I was thinking when I saw the track this evening.  Lets hope so.

[Roy]

I hope sombody gets some good out of this;  it's gonna make a helluva mess in South Texas.

[homerboy2u]

I hope sombody gets some good out of this;  it's gonna make a helluva mess in South Texas.

 Where in South texas: Corpus Christi?...Port Aransas ?...San Antonio?

[bdann]

I hope sombody gets some good out of this;  it's gonna make a helluva mess in South Texas.

 Where in South texas: Corpus Christi?...Port Aransas ?...San Antonio?

All of the above?  (and you too!)

[RichardM]

The latest "spaghetti" plot:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/04LSPAG.gif

[Roy]

Waiting on the afternoon update.  Right now they're not sure of the exact location of the eye.  Local officials in CC are warning us to expect 80-90 mph winds, LOTS of rain.  Nasty stuff probably starting tomorrow afternoon/evening.  Going to move stuff indoors and sort out the plywood tonight, see what they say early tomorrow.  Main problem is we won't have much time to react.

[homerboy2u]

Dang , this is starting to stink !!!......

[Ray52]

Good luck Roy.  

[SHANEA]

Coming your way...  Revised landfall slightly North of 10am...

Better get to the liquor store and stock up. 

[badknees]

Coming your way...  Revised landfall slightly North of 10am...

Better get to the liquor store and stock up. 

If history is any judge, wouldn't be surprised to see a more northerly landfall, especially if the forward speed slows as forecasted.

[Roy]

Liquor cabinet stocked;  ice in the freezer, food, batteries, candles, etc., all AOK.  (I was a Boy Scout). 
Dolly's still moving fast and looks to be headed south of us;  hope it heads inland fast and gets it over with.  This thing's a far cry from Rita or Katrina, more of a PITA than a real danger for us here .  If it stays south, folks down in Mexico could get slammed by the rains if it gets loose up in the mountains; or even Piedras Negras/Del Rio like that little one a few years back  (so keep your eyes open, Homero).

[SA Bill]

Aackk! I'm heading to Laredo tomorrow afternoon. Be there until sometime Thursday. Gonna get wet I guess.
  Bill

[homerboy2u]

You will get wet, professor..

 Doc Roy;

  Yes, i have been keeping an eye on this. Honestly, be careful over there and yes i do hope we get some of that tropical rain, over the Santa Rosa's and Del Carmen's . Big Bend should be blessed with that rain as well.

 Now as far as getting slammed, we learned years past to never lower your watch, a hurricane lost wind and turned in to a Tropical Storm. Ended up in Del Rio, right there at Amistad it somehow it gathered force again and raised itself to catagory 1 hurricane and slammed real hard on Del Rio and Acuña. We learned our lesson, then came the Tornado in Piedras Negras ....oh yes,I am on the look out.

Buena Suerte.

[SHANEA]

Forecaster Franklin jazzed it up a bit... Whatever a GFS and the GFDL are... Need Dr. Neil Frank here...

GFS  & GFDL are hurricane models


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/220254.shtml

000
WTNT44 KNHC 220254
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

DOLLY HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE THIS EVENING... AND NOW SHOWS EVIDENCE OF WRAPPING A BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AGAINST THE EASTERLY SHEAR... WHICH HAS BEEN DECREASING. DATA FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT... HOWEVER... INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS SOUTH OF THE APPARENT INFRARED CENTER. DOLLY IS ALSO MOVING OVER A WARM GULF EDDY. GIVEN THESE CHANGES... STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT YET IDEAL FOR DEVELOPMENT... WITH THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF DOLLY... BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THESE FEATURES TO BECOME BETTER CONNECTED JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND... DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A COLD EDDY IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS... WHEN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN IT IS NOW... AND THIS ENCOUNTER COULD PROVIDE A DAMPER ON THE INTENSIFICATION RATE IN THE LAST HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE OF ALL THIS IS THAT DOLLY VERY LIKELY WILL BECOME A HURRICANE... BUT THE ODDS ARE AGAINST IT BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. THE GUIDANCE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY DID A NICE JOB IN FORECASTING THE INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY... AND ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF DOLLY WEAKENS ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO ERODE SLIGHTLY AS A PAIR OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFS TO THE SOUTH AND THE GFDL TO THE NORTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 23.1N 92.8W 45 KT
 12HR VT 22/1200Z 23.9N 94.4W 55 KT
 24HR VT 23/0000Z 24.8N 95.8W 65 KT
 36HR VT 23/1200Z 25.6N 96.9W 75 KT
 48HR VT 24/0000Z 26.2N 98.0W 50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT 25/0000Z 26.5N 101.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Moderator note: these stupid  s are sure getting annoying...