Hello Dolly

[presidio]

Whatever a GFS and the GFDL are

Those are computer forecasts of ground track projections. There are more than a dozen for this storm.

[RichardM]

Whatever a GFS and the GFDL are

Those are computer forecasts of ground track projections. There are more than a dozen for this storm.

Ayup, here's this morning's spaghetti plot of all the different models.

[RichardM]

Officials fear Dolly could break Rio Grande levees
By CHRISTOPHER SHERMAN
Associated Press Writer

McALLEN, Texas — Coastal officials worried Tuesday that Tropical Storm Dolly may bring so much rain that flooding could break through the levees holding back the Rio Grande.

Officials urged residents to move away from the levees because if Dolly continues to follow the same path as 1967's Hurricane Beulah, "the levees are not going to hold that much water," said Cameron County Emergency Management Coordinator Johnny Cavazos.

Forecasters say Dolly was expected to dump 15 to 20 inches of rain and bring coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal high tide levels.

Hurricane warnings were in effect from Brownsville north to Corpus Christi, and in Mexico, from Rio San Fernando north to the U.S. border. Tropical storm warnings were issued for surrounding areas and the governor has declared 14 counties disaster areas, allowing state resources to be used to send equipment and emergency workers needed to the areas in the storm's path.

Forecasters said Dolly was expected to make land late Tuesday or early Wednesday as a hurricane with sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph. The storm combined with levees that have deteriorated in the 41 years since Beulah swept up the Rio Grande pose a major flooding threat to low-lying counties along the border. Beulah spawned more than 100 tornadoes across Texas and dumped 36 inches of rain in some parts of South Texas, killing 58 people and causing more than $1 billion damage.

[badknees]

41 years since Beulah swept up the Rio Grande pose a major flooding threat to low-lying counties along the border. Beulah spawned more than 100 tornadoes across Texas and dumped 36 inches of rain in some parts of South Texas

I remember Beulah. It wasn't pretty

[BigBendHiker]

41 years since Beulah swept up the Rio Grande pose a major flooding threat to low-lying counties along the border. Beulah spawned more than 100 tornadoes across Texas and dumped 36 inches of rain in some parts of South Texas

I remember Beulah. It wasn't pretty

Yep.  Beulah was bad.  We were living in Yoakum at the time.  The town of Sweet Home (about 8 miles from Yoakum, towards Hallettsville) got hit by a bad tornado.  Got to see a 1x4 that had been driven clean through a utility pole with one side of the 1x4 sticking out.  Pretty incredible.


BBH

[Roy]

Well, she's here and she's definitely one mean B.  I opened the office and saw a couple of patients, but we've got tornadoes in the area so I shut down.  Still had a couple of people that wanted to come in , but nothing critical so we rescheduled them.
Very heavy rain, but it's not coming in sideways yet.  Forecast calls for wind gusts up to 70 mph, but that's managable.  National Weather Service is now talking about Del Rio, Laredo, San Antonio as areas for potential flooding and tornadoes later on, so watch out, folks.  Hopefully, some of the rain will make it to the Bend.
Glad this thing stayed down south where it couldn't really get organized.  If it had gotten loose in the central Gulf, it would have turned into another Katrina or Rita.

[SA Bill]

I'm in Laredo with all of my rain gear and so far, nothing. Radar shows the light rain just to the west so it's coming. Doesn't look like it will be bad here until later. Hopefully I can get out of here in the morning to go back to SA.
  Bill

[badknees]

41 years since Beulah swept up the Rio Grande pose a major flooding threat to low-lying counties along the border. Beulah spawned more than 100 tornadoes across Texas and dumped 36 inches of rain in some parts of South Texas

I remember Beulah. It wasn't pretty

Yep.  Beulah was bad.  We were living in Yoakum at the time.  The town of Sweet Home (about 8 miles from Yoakum, towards Hallettsville) got hit by a bad tornado.  Got to see a 1x4 that had been driven clean through a utility pole with one side of the 1x4 sticking out.  Pretty incredible.


BBH

I was in McAllen for Beulah, and remember the floods, the heat (no power) and about a week later the mosquitos. Contrary to the media, Beulah did not actually follow up the river. It crossed Padre near Brazos Santiago pass and proceeded inland and stalled.

After the landfall of Beulah about 7 AM on Sept. 20, the highest winds diminished sharply, but the remaining storm was very persistent. It moved northward, carrying hurricane winds to south of Alice, stalled there and weakened during the night of Sept. 20, then moved west-southwest passing south of Laredo on the night of September 21, moved southwestward to near Monterrey on Sept. 22, and broke up in the mountains of northern Mexico. The remnant of the center moved southeastward over Mexico and reached the southwestern Gulf area again on Sept. 25.

At landfall winds near the center were about 136 miles an hour, and the central pressure, which had been as low as 27.26 inches (937 mb), was 28.07 inches, or 951 mb at Brownsville, which gave the storm a tide producing potential of about 15 feet. The highest winds and tides were expended against the coast about 20 miles north of Port Isabel.

[Roy]

Well, Dolly's made it to the Bend.  They've got flash flood warnings for the whole area.

[homerboy2u]

Oh yes, the Santa Rosa's and Del Carmen are drenched...Big Bend is bound to get wet too ....Thank you,Dolly !!!

[badknees]

Looks like more rain...

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
958 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

TXZ074-080>082-250500-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPINE...MARFA ...BIG BEND NP...MARATHON...
SANDERSON
958 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008


.NOW...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1230 AM CDT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN BREWSTER COUNTY
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE BIG BEND LATER TONIGHT.

[mule ears]

The radar looks like its headed straight to the Bend but falling apart as it goes.  Got to get some rain out of this though.

[badknees]

Weather Conditions for TS645
Current time: July 25, 2008 - 11:42 MDT
Most Recent Observations at July 25, 2008 - 10:50 MDT   10:50 Max since Midnight Min since Midnight 24 Hour Max 24 Hour Min
Temperature 58.0° F 58.0 at 0:50 58.0 at 0:50 70.0 at 12:50 56.0 at 19:50
Dew Point - 58.0 at 0:50 58.0 at 0:50 58.0 at 21:50 52.6 at 11:50
Relative Humidity - 100 at 0:50 100 at 0:50 100 at 19:50 59 at 12:50
Wind Speed 4 mph from NW 7 at 0:50 2 at 5:50 11 at 17:50 2 at 5:50
Wind Gust - 17 at 2:50 7 at 5:50 24 at 17:50 7 at 5:50
Fuel Temperature - 58.0 at 0:50 58.0 at 0:50 87.0 at 12:50 56.0 at 19:50
10 hr Fuel Moisture - 9 at 0:50 9 at 0:50 9 at 17:50 9 at 12:50
Battery voltage - 11.90 at 0:50 11.80 at 4:50 12.40 at 12:50 11.80 at 4:50

Precipitation accumulated since midnight: 2.47", in 24 hours: 2.54"

[dkerr24]

Over 2.5" of rain in a place like Big Bend has got to be a lot of water. 

Would be awesome to see some pics of those normally dry washes flowing with water.

[mule ears]

Over 2.5" of rain in a place like Big Bend has got to be a lot of water. 

Would be awesome to see some pics of those normally dry washes flowing with water.

From the webcam it looks like it's taking a break now.  I wonder if we have anyone from the board visiting this week that will post some pictures?