Hurricane Gustav

[BigBendHiker]

Back to the store I go....

Ingredients:
    * 1 oz Light rum
    * 1 oz Dark rum
    * 1 tblsp Passion fruit syrup
    * 2 tsp Lime juice

Mixing instructions:
Shake all ingredients with ice, strain into a cocktail glass, and serve.

Now you're talking!   (We did something similar during Hurricane Allen in 1980).



BBH

[RichardM]

I don't bother with the plywood. We've got a bunch of windows up high that would be a royal pain to cover. And that assumes that the clips holding the plywood would hold. We just bug out and hope the insurance covers what's lost. We're at about 21 23 feet ASL with a bayou right behind our house. FEMA rezoned us last year so we're now in a 100 year floodway. Note: that's floodway, not flood zone. And yes, we have flood insurance, too.


Hey, that extra 2 feet could make all the difference!

[RichardM]

WOW!

Looks like the models cover the full spectrum of possibilities. As of this morning the GFDL model has it hitting New Orleans as a Cat 4 (which would finish off the levees and city once and for all), while the AVNO model has it fading to just a tropical depression with 20mph winds.

Meanwhile, the HurricaneAlley.net's spaghetti plot has a few models predicting it'll drift south and hit the Yucatan. All they need is a couple of models having it go hit Florida or maybe reversing course and heading out to Bermuda to make the collection complete. 

[Roy]

I make a motion that we rename this sucker "Gusty".  I mean, what kind of name is "Gustav" anyway?  I figure it's  somehow realated to "Barack"; and all the wind that's emanating fro the DNC up in Denver.

(do I hear a second?)     

[SHANEA]

All they need is a couple of models having it go hit Florida or maybe reversing course and heading out to Bermuda to make the collection complete.

I believe the collection is complete...
The hurricane is now bounded in - everywhere from the Atlantic coast to the Yucatan. Pick a model, any model. Place your bets on where landfall will be...

New Orleans Times Piscayne

Mayor Ray Nagin leaving Democratic Convention to return to New Orleans

Hey, FEMA is showing as the top headline for Tropical Storm FAY! Someone might ought to give them a call...

FEMA is now of course part of the DHS-Department of Homeland Security...

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/RO2xi0uLnj8&rel=0" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/v/RO2xi0uLnj8&rel=0</a>

[Roy]

Looks like Gustav is fixin' to have a girlfriend.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084713.shtml?tswind120#contents

Her name will be Hannah;   I wouldn't want to be in the southeast the nest week or so.

[SHANEA]

"They" really expect Gustav to accelerate between Sun and Mon and cover a bunch of the Gulf of Mexico.

Up where I live, based on experience of Katrina and Rita, the city fathers canceled all employee vacations, leave, etc. starting yesterday in case the new beast makes it up this way or we are overran with evacuees like last time.

Looks like the track has shifted to the west.        

[SHANEA]

Models have certainly tightened up over the last 24-48 hours...

Perhaps all of the hot air coming out of Minneapolis-Saint Paul Minnesota starting Monday will blow this thing away and get it at bay...

[BigBendHiker]

Looks like the track has shifted to the west.        

Hi Shanea!
I saw that.  I think Gustav has a radar lock on your house.



BBH

[SHANEA]

FEMA RESPONDS

[Roy]

Alright, who ticked off the storm gods...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[SHANEA]

How much can we trust the five-day forecast?

Five-day forecasts typically have an error range from 220 to 320 miles,

Average Track Errors

All in all I would say the projected landfalls for each of these major hurricanes is fairly good, and now that we're an estimated five days out from Gustav's landfall I think we can have some confidence that it will probably reach the Gulf coast within 250 miles of the present forecast.

Of course that still means anywhere from Galveston to the western Florida Panhandle.

[Boojum1]

If Gustav goes more west it could really mess up dove hunting.  And other things, of course. 

[SHANEA]

Talked with my backpacking buddy up in Tyler today and he said the 2nd news story last night on TV was that there was virtually "no room at the inn" at all the hotels in Tyler for next week.  Everything had been booked up by people planning ahead and needing a place to take refuge.

East Texas Hotels Fill as Gulf Coast Residents Flee Gustav

Also,

Texas makes preparations in cast Gustav strikes

Talk about panic...

Gov. Rick Perry issued a disaster declaration for 61 counties in case Gustav arrives early next week along the coast, where some people Thursday were already filling up their gas tanks and stocking up on water and supplies.

Hotels in East Texas filled up fast as Gulf Coast residents made plans to head north. Tourism officials in Tyler said that most of the East Texas city's 2,200 hotel rooms are booked for the coming weekend and beyond.

The Texas Department of Transportation used electronic signs along the highway to urge motorists to fuel up their vehicles.

In Beaumont, which bore the brunt of Rita when the Category 3 hurricane landed in 2005, all eight pumps at a gas station were busy Thursday afternoon with drivers reluctant to wait until the last minute to fill up.

[RichardM]

Didn't these people learn anything from Rita? East Texas is NOT where you want to head when a hurricane is inbound to the Texas coast. Most hurricanes turn north sooner or later and guess where East Texas is in relation to most of the Texas gulf coast? Much better to head west or even south. I hear Big Bend is lovely this time of year.