Here we go again - IKE

[RichardM]

Hmmm, the tracks are drifting northward...

[SHANEA]

ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

ALL GUIDANCE TURNS IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL.  THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS.

IT IS TO BE EXPECTED THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.  IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/102050.shtml?

[Roy]

Yeah, apparently headed an little further up the coast.  At this point, looks like Matagorda area is in for it, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.  I'm still headed out tomorrow.  Points north, Freeport, Galveston, are going to catch a huge tidal surge, at the very least.  Hope noone owns any beachfront property.

[RichardM]

Yeah, apparently headed an little further up the coast.  At this point, looks like Matagorda area is in for it, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.  I'm still headed out tomorrow.  Points north, Freeport, Galveston, are going to catch a huge tidal surge, at the very least.  Hope noone owns any beachfront property.

Um, yeah, that'd be my mother-in-law, with a house in Pirate's Beach. It's several blocks back but still subject to the storm surge. Any seriously strong winds will likely destroy the roof. If it floods, the contents of the ground-level garage will be ruined (fridge, tons of tools, toys, and the golf cart my daughter whined my MIL into buying just a month or so ago). The windows are all covered by storm shutters or plywood.

[Ray52]

My sister owns a home on the west end of Galveston Island about 2 miles east of SLP and a couple of blocks inland from the shoreline.  I'm sure she's a bit concerned about her investment now and maybe a little less concerned about the astronomical insurance premiums.  Richard, Roy.....and any others of you who may be evacuating.....best of luck to you.  Evacuation traffic adds a tremendous amount of stress to that of the storm itself.  Good luck again and Godspeed!

[mbent]

Yeah, my son is in Matagorda/Bay city and he's running around worried about trapping water for tanks on their hunting leases! I'm like...come home! At least we're further north....we're staying put this time!

[TheWildWestGuy]

The traffic volume here in Houston is heavier than the normal heavy and the gas stations and grocery stores are getting really busy.  Many businesses are waiting until tomorrow afternoon to decide if they are going to be open on Friday or not.   This could be an interesting weekend if it turns further towards Houston than expected.  It's got to work better than Rita though - that was about as screwed up as the plan for New Orleans was.   Look at the size of that monster storm - it's going to fill up a good portion of the entire Gulf of Mexico and probably knock out a lot of old platforms and oil and gas facilities.  Wow... TWWG

[Roy]

That's me right in the crosshairs.  Water on the right is the Laguna Madre.
http://wikimapia.org/#lat=27.6299882&lon=-97.2902226&z=17&l=0&m=a&v=2

Ran into a friend at lunch;  owner of the local hardware store.  Said she wanted to stay open but she was sold out of almost everything;  plywood, tape, screws, bolts, rope, etc; probably have to shut down tonight. 

[badknees]

Latest GFDL

[RichardM]

Latest GFDL

Where are you getting these plots? My Google-Fu has failed me.

[SHANEA]

WOW!

Get out the duct tape and plastic sheets per instructions from DHS.   DUCT and COVER...   

What, about 150mph when it makes landfall near Galveston...

[badknees]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/


Look under Hurricane Graphics/ Nested domain.

GHM will give a GFDL run and HWRF wil give you an HWRF run(duh)

Pick the "fine" option

Run the 700 mb loop and it will take you through the 5 day loop.

[Roy]

New track;  this looks about as bad as it could get for Galveston/Houston. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211330.shtml?3day#contents

[SHANEA]

The following is from Southwest Airlines webpage.

Houston Hobby (HOU)

Due to the conditions surrounding Hurricane Ike, our scheduled service to/from HOU will be disrupted.

Starting at 9:00 a.m. CT on Friday, September 12, we will suspend our HOU flight operations. The resumption of service is contingent upon the availability of airport facilities and services.

As such, before checking in online or proceeding to the airport, contact Reservations (1-800-435-9792) to check the status of your flight.

Southwest Airlines Customers holding reservations to/from HOU on Wednesday, September 10 through the close of business Monday, September 15, 2008 wanting to alter their travel plans may rebook in the original class of service or travel standby (within 14 days of their original date of travel between the original city-pairs and in accordance with our accommodation procedures) without paying any additional charge.

Additionally, Customers holding reservations for a flight that is cancelled to/from HOU may request a refund for an unused ticket/travel itinerary.

[SHANEA]

SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO
KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.  EVERYONE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/110301.shtml