Working for a Semi Condutor Equipment Manufacture in my past like (stock AMAT)
Memory prices are directly related to how much excess capacity is in the Semi Conductor world. You can track RAM prices with the excess capacity and still account for Moore's Law.
So when RAM gets really really cheap its because there is so much excess capcaity. These factory's cost 100's of millions of dollars to set up, even in to the billions of dollars likes the recent Samsung Expansion in Austin. That when they start to slow down they ramp up memory since cash flow is cash flow.
I can tell you in Fall 2000 we where building 10-12 tools a week on my assembly line. We bottomed out there at 12 tools one Quarter around Spring 2002. This was one of aprox 8 product lines built in Austin. Spring 2009 the WHOLE plant built like 15 tools. No one is increasing production right now and its really one or two tools here and there. Enjoy cheap memory for some time. There was a 20-26 week lead time to get a tool so there is not anytime in the future that demand should spike.
